Daily Market Wrap: US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement, CAD Unemployment, USD CPI, USD GDP, FOMC Meeting Minutes
US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement: In a major diplomatic breakthrough, the United States and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, easing weeks of escalating tensions that had raised fears of a wider regional war.
The ceasefire, announced by Donald Trump, is set to last two weeks and is aimed at creating space for peace negotiations. The agreement comes just hours before a potential large-scale military escalation. The Agreement was brokered with the help of Pakistan, which has invited both countries for peace talks in Islamabad on Friday 10 April 2026 to work toward a long-term solution.
Financial markets reacted positively, with stocks rising and oil prices falling sharply after the announcement. The US–Iran ceasefire marks an important pause in hostilities, but experts warn it is fragile and temporary. The upcoming talks on Friday will be crucial in determining whether this truce can lead to a lasting peace agreement.
Canada Unemployment: Report in Focus Ahead of Friday Release:- All eyes are on the upcoming labour market report from Statistics Canada, scheduled for release this Friday, as investors look for fresh signals on the health of the Canadian economy.
Economists anticipate the unemployment rate to remain broadly stable around 6.6%–6.7%, compared to the previous reading of 6.7%. The forecast suggests a labour market that is losing momentum but not sharply deteriorating.
Recent data showed a notable slowdown, with the economy shedding jobs in the previous month, raising concerns about weakening employment conditions.
While the labour market is not collapsing, the recent slowdown suggests growing downside risks. A weak report could further pressure the Canadian Dollar and strengthen expectations of a more cautious monetary policy stance.
U.S. CPI: Inflation Data in Focus Ahead of Key Release:- Friday’s CPI report is expected to be a high-impact event, potentially driving sharp moves across currencies, commodities, and equities. A surprise in either direction could significantly shift expectations for future policy decisions and market direction.
US inflation is expected to rise sharply again, driven mainly by higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with CPI likely to jump toward the 3.4%–3.7% range, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it faces a policy conflict between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
USD GDP: report is expected to show a stable but fragile U.S. economy, balancing between resilience and rising risks. While growth remains positive, the combination of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and slowing momentum suggests that the outlook remains uncertain.
Geopolitical tensions are raising energy costs and disrupting supply chains, while strong business investment—especially in AI and infrastructure—supports growth, even as rising inflation pressures reduce consumer purchasing power and a still-solid labor market faces underlying slowdown risks.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Importantly, the committee signaled a data-dependent approach going forward. Future rate decisions will be guided by incoming inflation data, employment figures, and broader economic indicators rather than a fixed policy path.
Overall, the tone of the minutes suggests that the Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-watch mode, maintaining a hawkish bias on inflation while being increasingly mindful of risks to economic growth.
Trader Takeaways:
US - IRAN Ceasefire: Risk sentiment improves → Bullish equities, bearish oil, USD slightly softer (safe-haven unwind), but fragile situation
CAD Jobs Data: Weak trend risk → CAD downside bias if data disappoints
US CPI (Friday): High-impact event → Higher inflation = USD bullish, Lower = USD bearish
US GDP: Stable but slowing → Limits aggressive USD upside
FOMC Minutes: Data-dependent + hawkish tone → Volatility driven by incoming data
Overall Bias:
Short-term risk-on, but markets highly data-sensitive (CPI key trigger).
